UK and Africa Trade: Where the Opportunity Really Is
Africa's economy has grown by more than 20% over the past decade, placing it among the more active regions in the global economy.
A 2024 Tony Blair Institute report notes that while African GDP has expanded by over 20% in that period, UK exports to the continent have moved in the opposite direction, with Brookings data showing trade peaking at around $51 billion in 2012 before falling to roughly $27 billion by 2019.
That contrast raises a straightforward question about where the UK's commercial links actually sit as African markets continue to expand. In many cases, the answer may not lie in entirely new directions, but in revisiting sectors and relationships that have not yet been fully developed.
The Numbers Tell a Clear Story
UK trade with Africa is still quite concentrated, mostly in a few key markets.
· Nigeria is one of the main ones, with total trade at £7.6 billion, £5.5 billion of which is UK exports.
· South Africa is still the largest overall partner, sitting somewhere between £10 billion and £12 billion.
· Morocco has been climbing fairly quickly to £4.2 billion, while Ghana is around £1.6 billion.
Zooming out, the export mix itself hasn't changed much. A large share of UK exports to Africa still comes from a small group of sectors: machinery, mineral fuels, vehicles, electrical equipment, and pharmaceuticals. It's a fairly narrow base, which is fine for stability, but it also means growth is heavily tied to a few categories.
Where the Real GBP Opportunity Lives
Financial Services: The UK exported £91.8 billion in financial services globally in 2023, generating a trade surplus of £73.2 billion. A growing share of this is now coming from outside the EU, where export growth has been faster in cash terms.
In many African markets, financial services are still relatively underdeveloped. That gap is drawing increasing attention, especially for UK firms already active in banking, payments, insurance and financial infrastructure.
Digital Economy and Fintech: Nearly three-quarters of Africa's venture capital funding is concentrated in Nigeria, South Africa, Kenya, and Egypt, with fintech taking the largest share. The sector has become one of the main drivers of digital innovation across the continent.
The AfCFTA Digital Trade Protocol, adopted in February 2025, adds another layer of structure. It covers areas such as digital identity, cross-border payments, data transfer, and cybersecurity.
Against that backdrop, UK digital services firms are well placed to participate in this space as digital infrastructure and online financial systems continue to develop.
Critical Minerals: Africa holds significant reserves of lithium, cobalt, manganese, and rare earth elements essential for the energy transition. UK firms with expertise in sustainable extraction and processing have a competitive advantage that aligns with both commercial and strategic interests.
Pharmaceuticals: Over £24.6 billion worth of medicinal and pharmaceutical products were exported by the UK globally in 2024, up 6% over five years. Rising African healthcare spending and expanding insurance coverage create sustained demand growth.
The Investment Case Is Compelling
UK Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Africa reached £53.5 billion in 2024, up 19% from £44.8 billion the year before, with returns averaging 12.1%, roughly double the global average of 6.1%. British International Investment also committed over £1.09 billion to African companies in 2024 across 884 businesses.
If AfCFTA is implemented effectively, UK FDI stock could rise by up to 25%, or about £12.5 billion over time. With 31 countries now trading under the agreement, up from seven in 2023, momentum is clearly building.
The Bottom Line
Competition is increasing. China, India, Turkey and several Gulf states have all expanded their presence across Africa in recent years. Against that backdrop, the UK's share of total FDI in Africa has eased from about 10% in 1992 to under 7% by 2019.
The scale of the opportunity is already clear. Estimates point to around $8 billion in untapped export potential, FDI returns of 12.1%, and a market of roughly 1.7 billion people, with spending projected to reach $6.7 trillion by 2030.
Taken together, it suggests the opportunity is less about discovery and more about timing. The space is visible, the numbers are established, and the real question is how quickly businesses choose to act as competition continues to build.